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Date of release: March 23
Released in: Radio and TV Slovenija
Source: http://volitve.cati.si/referendum/english.htm
Phone surveys carried out on March 10-19th and the 23rd
by CATI
Referendum-day projections from
CATI:
93% votes for EU, 62% for NATO
Ljubljana - Marketing and opinion
research company CATI (www.cati.si) is tracking public
opinion regarding EU and NATO referendums for last two
weeks. While estimates for EU continue to be stable,
estimates for NATO outcome continue to oscillate due
to several domestic and foreign events (two weeks ago
Slovenian fishing boats were captured by Croatian coast
guard, Serbian premier was assassinated in Belgrade,
in last few days several TV confrontations occurred
and of course recent events in Iraq… media were extensively
covering these events).
Recent events are not the only
problem why these predictions are very difficult task.
Results of referendums are rather difficult to predict
and opinion polls have in all last referendums not predicted
the correct outcome. The primary reason for that is
due to low level of participation. Last estimates show,
that in this year participation in referendum will be
rather high – over
During last presidental elections
CATI conducted Exit polls for Slovenian national television.
In the questionnaire there were also two additional
questions: how they would vote in as of NATO referendum
and how do they respond to public opinion polls over
the telephone. There were significant differences regarding
NATO among those who participate in opinion polls and
those who do not participate in opinion polls - significantly
higher proportion of people who participate in opinion
polls favoured joining NATO. Among those who do not
participate in opinion polls the picture was completely
different - there was much higher proportion of NATO
opponents. Additional problem represents high percentage
of those people voting before Sunday, which can be hardly
evaluated by telephone surveys.
Following projections are based
on telephone surveys using methodology described above.
Data was collected in period from 10th of March to 19th
of March. Projections from 20th and 21st of March will
be revealed on Sunday, the trend for joining NATO after
March 19th was negative.
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10-12/03
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12-14/03
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17-19/03
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For
EU |
89%
|
93%
|
93%
|
| |
Against
EU |
11%
|
7%
|
7%
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Sample
size |
n=243
|
n=258
|
n=507
|
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10-12/03
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12-14/03
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17-19/03
|
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For
NATO |
58%
|
68%
|
62%
|
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Against
NATO |
42%
|
32%
|
38%
|
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Sample
size |
n=243
|
n=258
|
n=507
|
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Monitored media 
