|
Date of release: June 5
Released in: Rzeczpospolita
Link: http://www.rzeczpospolita.pl/dodatki/referendumue_030605/index.html
Survey was carried out by PBS between 31st of May and
1st of June
N=1039 adult Poles
More Poles want to vote
More and more Poles want to
vote - results from the last Eurobarometer of "Rzeczpospolita".
This survey carried out a week before the referendum
shows that support for the integration has decreased
by 4 points. However since April - when we signed accession
treaty - it has been quite stable. Currently, 76% of
voters promise to say "yes".
Two third of Poles with voting
rights (68%) are decided to vote this Saturday and Sunday.
This is the significant increase (by 12 points) since
the last survey conducted three weeks ago. 18% of surveyed
people still hesitate (drop by 3 points).
During the last months a group
of voters determined to vote has oscillated around 54-58%,
which means that the result of the referendum is hanging
at risk, because a valid referendum requires a turnout
of at least 50%.
We have asked respondents if
they plan to vote on Saturday or on Sunday. 31% of surveyed
people want to cast their votes on Saturday and 45%
on Sunday. One out of four people hasn't decided yet
when to go to the referendum. Inhabitants of big cities
prefer to vote on Saturday and rural population - on
Sunday.
At the ballot boxes there are
expected first of all people with higher education (78%),
inhabitants of big cities (75%) and people with better
wages (79% of those with an income of 700 PLN per one
family member). Population aged 40-59 is the most decided
to vote (76% of them is going to the referendum).
Our last surveys show that the
number of those intending to stay at home regularly
decreases. The current ratio of people unwilling to
vote is 5% (drop by 5 points). Another 4% of Poles "rather
won't vote".
The most unwilling to participate
in referendum are old people, worse educated, rural
population and pensioners. The most indifferent people
are among those aged over 59 - 15% of them don't want
to vote. However, among young people (aged 18-24) only
one out of ten promises to vote.
Those who are willing to take part in referendum were
asked how they will vote. These are the people, who
- in case the turnout is above 50% - will decide whether
Poland will join EU or not.
Respondents were asked exactly
the same question as in the referendum on 7th and 8th
of June: "Are you in favor of Poland's accession
to EU?". Over ¾ of them (76%) answered,
"Yes" (decrease by 4 points). 13% chose the
option "No" (increase by 1 point).
Among people who promise to participate
in the referendum the number of those who know how to
vote has increased. In the first decade of May they
made 6%, now - 11%.
Who is going to stay at home:
those who are still undecided, opponents or maybe supporters
of the integration? These groups are almost equal. Opponents
make 40%, supporters - 37%, whereas one out of four
respondents who will not vote has no opinion on this.
If the results of approving EU
- both within voting and not voting - were counted in
terms of the whole society, it would reveal that 70%
of Poles are in favor of joining EU (decrease by 1 point),
16% are against (decrease by 2 points), whereas the
number of undecided population has increased - now they
make 15%.
The worst outcomes are still
in the rural area - 62% of rural population is for the
integration, 22% are against. However, these ratios
have improved among farmers - euroskeptics (31%) don't
dominate over the europtimists (46%) any more. Old people
and those worse educated are less willing to integrate
and to vote as well. The strongest opposition (30%)
is among families of middle and old age without children.
SLD-UP followers were again labeled
as the most pro-European electorate. 87% of those who
tend to vote will say "yes". Similar high
support for the integration is among PO supporters (86%).
The great majority of PiS and PSL followers will vote
for the integration (70% in both electorates). Less
support has been noticed among Self-Defence (50%). The
most euro-skeptics are among League of Polish Families.
Electorate of this party is divided: opponents of the
integration make 40% and supporters - 42%.
Will you participate in the
referendum?
Definitely yes: 68%
Rather yes: 18%
Rather no: 4%
Definitely no: 5%
Have no opinion: 5%
When are you going to vote?
On Saturday: 31%
On Sunday: 45%
Have no opinion: 24%
How will vote those who will
go to the ballot boxes?
For the integration: 76%
Against the integration: 13%
Have no opinion: 11%
Approval of EU in the whole
society
supporters: 70%
opponents: 16%
undecided: 14%
|
Monitored media 
