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HUNGARY

Date of release: April 1
Released in: own website
Link reference:
http://www.gallup.hu/Gallup/release/mo_eu_030331.htm
http://www.korridor.hu/cikk.php?cikk=100000055578
Face to face survey, between March 7-12, by Gallup
N=989 (18+ national adults)

Support of EU membership has grown
An increasing number of citizens promise to vote

In the second week of March 2003, one month before the referendum on Hungary's EU accession Gallup asked a total of 989 Hungarian adult citizens concerning their opinions on the accession of Hungary to the European Union. The sample compiled through random sampling precisely reflected the composition of the adult population of Hungary in respect of the proportions of the genders, age groups and the type of municipality of the place of residence. People were queried in 67 municipalities of Hungary between 7 and 12 March 2003.

Six out of ten citizens are in favour of Hungary's EU accession

In response to our question of 'In your opinion, would Hungary's EU membership be a good thing, a bad thing or neither', 57 % of the respondents said that it would be a good thing, 15 % answered that it would be bad, 17 % said that it would not matter much and 11 % could or would not answer. In comparison to the data recorded one month before the percentage of those considering membership as a good thing has increased by 8 percentage points and the number of those considering membership as immaterial dropped by the same percentage, whereas the ratio of those considering membership undesirable and those not giving a straightforward answer has not changed.

"Generally speaking, do you think that Hunagry's membership of the European Union would be…?"
(% of the adult population)

Besides the fact that the ratio of those considering EU accession a good thing increased to 4 times the ratio of those considering it a bad thing, it should be seen that this majority is still smaller than last year or the year before that, however, it is still higher than the ratio recorded in January 2000. (In early 2000 some 55 % of respondents were in favour of accession while the highest ratio was recorded in September 2002: then the corresponding figure was 67 percentage points (10 % higher).

More people expect personal benefits from accession

As in our earlier surveys, the following question was asked gain: 'Would Hungary's EU membership result in any personal benefits for you?'. The responses showed a significant increase in the number of people expecting personal benefits: 43 % of the adult population in contrast to the 37 % not expecting such. This shows a turn-around of the ratios of those expecting and those not expecting personal benefits, in favour of the former group. (Again, like a month ago a fifth of the population could not or would not answer this question).

"Do you think that Hunagry becoming a member of the European Union would bring you personally advantages, or not?"
(adult population)

The proportion of people expecting personal benefits from Hungary's EU membership increased from 39 % to 48 % between January 2000 and the autumn of 2002, whoever, by February 2003 it dropped to 36 % but by today it has exceeded the 42 % recorded in 2001. The opposite process has taken place in respect of those not expecting personal benefits from Hungary's EU accession, their percentage has dropped to 37 % as recorded in October 2001. The ratio of those not certain of their opinion has remained unchanged all along, at 20-21 %.

A total of 58 % of people say they will 'definitely' participate in the referendum on accession
Propensity to participate in the referendum on the EU accession was assessed on the basis of a scale of 10 grades. People were asked to 'specify the probability of your participating in the referendum concerning Hungary's EU accession, using this card'. The card contained a scale of 10 grades, where grade 1 meant that one would not, grade 10 meant that one would surely participate. Interim grades could, of course, also be used.

Taking those specifying the top three levels for their propensity to participate as people who will highly likely go to cast votes, it may be declared that between 7 and 12 of March 2003 some 74 % of the population would likely go to vote (in contrast to the 71 % recorded in the second week of February). The ratio of those not really willing to go and vote (considered as really not likely to participate) is still at the 12 % level recorded in September 2002.

Change of the propensity to participate in the referendum
(grades 8 to 10 in the scale of 10 shows high inclination to vote)
[% of voting age population]

A total of 58 % of respondents said that they would "absolutely certainly " (grade 10) participate in a 'referendum tomorrow' concerning Hungary's EU accession (in February the corresponding figure was only 55 %).

More than three quarters of those 'definitely going to vote' are in support of accession

To our question of 'And if the referendum were to be held tomorrow concerning Hungary's EU accession, would you vote for or against?' 64 % of our respondents said that they would be for accession - which is 5 percentage points higher than a month ago. 16 % would vote against Hungary's EU accession - as in February. 9 % would not go to vote, 11 % said that they will not say how they would vote.

"And, if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question of Hungary's membership of the European Union, would you personally vote for or against it?"
(% adult population)

From among the 58 % of the population who marked their propensity to participate this time - one month before the referendum - at 10 on the scale of 10 grades a total of 78 % said that they would certainly vote for Hungary's EU accession. The ratio of those considering that they will definitely go to vote increased from 55 % to 58 % over a single month, and the ratio of those who would definitely vote for accession has remained at 78 %.

The attitude towards the referendum is influenced by a variety of motives.

Among those who consider that they will have personal benefits from Hungary's EU accession there is a negligible ratio of people not intending to vote or intending to vote against membership (2 % each). Among those who do not expect personal benefits the proportions are not the reverse - quite interestingly- instead, the numbers of those in favour and those against membership are more or less identical. The number of those in favour of membership is slightly higher (within the statistical margin of error) than those against. 42 % of those not expecting personal benefits would vote for, 39 % of them would vote against membership, 19 of them would not go to cast a vote.

Those expressing definite opinions on Hungary's EU accession - those who are for membership, against membership, those not intending to vote - are distributed in different proportions among voters of different political parties (among those who preferred one or another political party in responded to our question concerning a fictitious general election the next week).

The Alliance of Liberal Democrats (SZDSZ) is the party with the highest ratio of sympathisers and members favouring EU membership: 93 of these people would vote for accession. The corresponding ratios among MSZP (Socialist Party), MDF (Hungarian Democrats Forum) are 85 and 77 %, respectively. Two thirds of those having definite opinions among FIDESZ (Hungarian Civic Party) opt for Hungary's EU accession.

MIÉP (Hungarian Truth and Life Party) and the Workers' Party sympathisers would vote against accession in higher than average rates along with the sympathisers of the Centrum Party and FIDESZ having definite standpoints. 11 % of MSZP sympathisers would vote against Hungary's EU accession from among those having definite opinions concerning Hungary's EU accession.

As for the referendum (how they would vote if they voted) 12 % of FIDESZ sympathisers have not formed or would not reveal their standpoints. A similar ratio (11 %) of the total population and only about 5 % of those opting for the socialist party have the same view.

The majority are in favour of the single currency, the replacement of HUF with Euro

Our latest survey also checked the attitude of the Hungarian population to the single currency and to the question of Hungary's adoption of the EUR. We asked 'Would you support or be against using the Euro in all member states of the European Union - including Hungary, if we join - in other words, should the HUF be replaced by the Euro in the future?"

Over half (54 %) of the Hungarian population re in favour of the use of the single European currency - replacing the HUF - and only 23 % are against it.

Within these the ratio of those 'strongly in favour' is 21 %, those 'strongly against' is 9 %. 17 % said that 'they are not for nor against' the use of the single currency, 7 % made no comment on this.

Support of the use of the Euro
(adult population, %)