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Date of release: June 11
Released in: www.tns-sofres.cz
Source: http://www.tns-factum.cz/index.php?lang=cz&idp=76&in=&id=291
Face to face survey on quota sample, between 30 May
and 4 June 2003, by TNS Factum
N=1006 (15+ population; 960 18+)
Late set-back: still a prognosed
three quarters (76%) of the votes will favour accession
according to TNS
Preparedness of the citizens
to participate in the referendum is slightly increasing;
momentary estimate is about 57% of participation rate.
Supporters become more active but opponents of
accession are even more active now; current prognosis
of the referendum result is 76% voting "yes",
compared to a predicted 82% last week.
Each week TNS Factum, s.r.o.
presents, on the basis of a contract with the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, a set of questions concerning the
attitude of the public to the access of the Czech Republic
to the EU. The inquiry, the results of which are presented,
took place on May 30th - June 4th, 2003 on a representative
sample of 1006 Czech citizens 15 years old or older
(from which 960 are 18 years or older, who were given
the presented questions), obtaining a quota selection.
This is the last, 17th survey in a row with a weekly
periodicity.
Public interest in events
connected with the entry to the EU
The results show that the interest of citizens is increasing
close to the date of referendum. While in the long term
perspective from February roughly a third of the Czechs
(38%) were often interested, from half of May "often
interest" increased - now it is 41%. More than
half (53%) were interested during this period sometimes,
now it is 50%. Not at all interested are 9%.
Participation and voting in
the referendum
Following the rise of interest the willingness to vote
in referendum is rising too. Results once again indicate
that within extreme positive circumstances 70% of legal
voters can participate in the referendum (the sum of
the answers "definitely" and "probably"
is now 77%).
Long-term experience from election polls of course indicates
that this information is probably overvalued and the
actual participation will be lower - probably (taking
into account experience) around 57%.
Seeing as those people that intend
to vote for our entry to the EU continue to display
their willingness to participate in the referendum,
it can be expected that the referendum will unequivocally
result in the approval of the entrance of the Czech
Republic to the EU. Last surveys show also that willingness
to vote - both "for" and "against"
is growing up within both groups, but more apparently
in the group of opponents.
According to the current prognosis,
approximately eight out of ten participants - 76% -
would vote for entry in the referendum . This is little
decrease of "yes" voters share, caused by
acquisition of the EU opponents. Yes votes nevertheless
are predominant in all the socio-demographic groups
followed. The referendum would turn out worst among
those who support the left, number of votes "for"
and "against" would be equal.
The media, however, sometimes
tend to confuse this optimistic prognosis of the referendum
to represent the sweeping support throughout the public
for entering the EU. In order to put the situation in
the proper light, we will also present percentage for
the whole population enable to vote (18+): 52% of the
citizens would vote for, 21% against and 26% do not
know how they would lean in the referendum.
The strongest influence on "how
to vote" has age (higher age results in lower share
of citizens voting "for" from 64% among young
people up to 29 years to 41% among people older than
60 years) and education (higher education indicates
higher proportion of supporters: from 45% from among
elementary educated without any vocational training
to 75 % among graduated from universities).
Perception of the information
media
Currently 44% think that there is not enough information
about the Czech entry to the EU, 51% are of the opposite
opinion - that the information is sufficient. The percentage
of those who think that they do not have essential,
important information at their disposal is now at 54%
(51% was before one week) and the percentage of those
who state that they do not receive sufficient arguments
supporting the decision to enter the EU now amounts
to 48% (last week 48%). The feeling of deficit of the
important information and arguments increased during
the last period a bit.
The opinion that the state is
trying to convince citizens to vote for entrance to
the EU was oscillating for a long time around the halfway
mark: two weeks ago it was 56%, last week 59%, now it
has decrease a bit to 55%. On the other hand the portion
of those who claim that the state leaves them room to
make their own decision was fluctuating around one third
(30%), last week reached 26%, now is higher again -
32%. Last weeks development shows that the citizens
felt up to the end of May the communication campaign
more and more as a pressure, still the changes are not
dramatical in the beginning of June.
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