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Date of release: June 4
Released in: www.onet.pl
Link: http://info.onet.pl/728378,11,item.html
Face to face survey carried out by CBOS between 29th
May and 1th June
N=1260 adult Poles
Who Goes to EU? The Latest Survey
A week before the referendum
the intention to participate in referendum was declared
by 81% people surveyed by CBOS.
71% of respondents (7 points
more than in the last moth) declared that they would
definitely participate in referendum and 10% (5 points
less than in the last month) would rather participate.
However CBOS pays attention on
the fact that "we know from experience that the
participation could be lower than currently declared
even by more than 20 points".
According to CBOS in referendum on Saturday and Sunday
8% people definitely will not participate in referendum,
which is 2% less, than in May. 9% did not know yet what
they would do at the referendum time and 2% "rather
will not participate" in referendum.
In the last days before the referendum
the declared approval toward the integration with EU
was strengthened. 76% of those that declared to participate
in the referendum would opt for the accession to EU
(2% more than in May). Only 13% of declared participants
want to vote against the integration (2% less than in
May).
CBOS notices in the report that " the percentage
of people willing to vote in the referendum for the
integration with EU is the highest since March 2002
when we asked about the decision regarding the vote
for the first time. At the same time, never before was
the number of opponents toward the integration so low
like today".
Questionnaire of CBOS measured
the possible impact of Pope John Paul II's declaration
(on 17th of May in front of National Polish Pilgrimage)
on decisions to be made in the referendum. 90% of integration's
supporters are convinced that the Pope opted for the
accession to EU, 61% of opponents and 77% of undecided
people have the same opinion. The opponents toward the
integration are more likely to state that pope has not
been unequivocal in his declaration regarding the integration.
CBOS announces, that in the opinion of 79% respondents,
the Pope supports Polish integration with EU, 13% of
them considers that "it is difficult to say whether
pope is in favor or against it", 7% thinks he doesn't
have an unequivocal opinion and 1% - that pope is against
the integration.
For 73% of respondents the declaration of Pope has no
influence on their decision about if and how to vote,
for 17% of them it just confirmed their own decision,
and for 3% the declaration did not change the own decision.
CBOS asked also the respondents
to predict the results of the referendum. According
to the answers we can expect 56% of turnout and 58%
of integration's supporters.
CBOS asked also whether it should
be allowed to encourage people to vote after the first
day of the referendum in case of low turnout. 50% of
respondents answered negatively, 38% had positive attitude
toward this idea and 12% had no opinion.
According to CBOS, the increase
of declared participation shortly before the date of
referendum is a typical phenomenon registered before
elections. "Although 81% of respondents declare
to participate in referendum the real turnout can be
lower from currently declared even by 20 points. It
could be expected that the real turnout in the referendum
will be closer to respondents' prediction than to respondents'
declaration." - said CBOS.
The survey was carried out by
CBOS between 29th May and 1th June, on a representative
random sample of 1260 adult Poles
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