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POLAND

Date of release: June 4
Released in: Zycie Warszawy
Link: http://www.zw.com.pl/apps/a/tekst.jsp?place=zw2_ListNews1&news_cat_id=9&news_id=15259
analysis

Attention! 49 Percent

Opinion poll results have been overrated. It is likely that Poland will be short of 54,000 votes in its EU referendum.

Even though the most recent surveys show that approx. 75% of Poles want to vote, in fact this percentage may be much lower - even by one third. This means that the referendum may be invalid.

The latest reports of opinion poll centers are encouraging. According to them, at least 70% of Poles will go to polling stations to vote. However, similar results have been observed before in previous elections when actual voter turnout was lower by several points. Before the constitutional referendum as much as 65% declared participation but only 42% went to the ballot boxes. Voter turnout was similar in the last election although a turnout rate of over 60% was expected.

Enough or Not Enough
Let's compare the real turnout of the last parliamentary election (46,29%) with the Demoskop survey conducted a month before that election (67%). If we make some adjustments of current surveys' results it turns out that less than a half of the voting population (49,8%) may actually participate in the accession referendum. Assuming that 27 mln of Poles have voting rights, there may be a shortage of 54,000 votes, i.e. exactly 0,2%.

"The result of the referendum is still hanging at risk. I'm afraid that the last surveys put us to sleep," says Dr. Jacek Kucharczyk, Program Director at the Institute for Public Affairs. "Some might feel that the result of the referendum is already determined and might simply stay at home." Sociologist, Dr. Tomasz Zukowski, agrees with that opinion. "Nothing is certain here. Poles may deliberate going to vote or staying at home," he points out.

Zukowski emphasizes that uncertainty is higher because Poland has never had a two-day election before and because we're dealing with such an important issue as EU membership. He explains that it's similar to the football match: we know players, we know how their form is but we can't univocally predict the result of the match.

It's difficult to predict how Poles will behave. It may be like in Hungary where in spite of a high-expected turnout, only 46% of Hungarians went to the polling stations. However, that country did not require a level of 50%. "Maybe this will motivate us to vote," considers Kucharczyk and points out that other candidate countries, Slovakia and Lithuania became mobilized after the first day of voting and fortunately managed to reach the required turnout level.

"I think it will be very important to listen to in media on Saturday evening or the day after," states Zukowski. This is because PKW (National Electoral Commission) will inform us about how many of Poles have already voted. If turnout is very low we will consider our participation in the referendum as very significant and we will go to vote.

Weather and the Scandals
The weather can also influence the number of people will decide to fulfill their civil duty. "The weather should be neither too nice nor too bad," says sociologist Prof. Edward Ciupak. "If it rains nobody will want to leave home. If it's sunny, everybody will go out of the city on Friday."
"Fortunately, the TV program is not interesting enough to watch all the day," jokes Kucharczyk.

A lot can happen during the course of the next few days, for instance a new scandal will explode. "Every scandal discourages a new group of people to participate in public life and here every vote counts," Zukowski emphasizes. The last days of the information campaign before the referendum also mean a lot. "Talking with friends family members is also important. Decisions of parents might also be influenced by arguments of their children," adds Ciupak.

If we don't go to vote the referendum will not be valid. That simply means that we will not be the ones making the decision. In such a case, it will be made by the parliament. A two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives and Senate will then be needed for our accession to the EU and Euro-enthusiasts have the majority in the Polish parliament.

This survey was carried out by Ipsos-Demoskop between 8th and 13th May, using a representative random-quota sample of 946 adult Poles.