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Date of release: May 2-4
Released in: Rzeczpospolita
Link: click
here
Face to face random survey carried out between April
26-27 by PBS
N=1046 (national 18+ population)
More supporters of integration
after the Summit in Athens
56% of Poles are decided
to vote in EU referendum and a great majority of them
(81%) assure that will cast their vote for joining the
EU - these are the results of the latest Polish European
Barometer of "Rzeczpospolita". After the summit
in Athens, where Poland has signed the accession treaty,
the support for the integration has distinctly increased.
Rzeczpospolita was the first to ask Poles exactly the
same question as in the referendum on 7th and 8th of
June. Interviewers of PBS that carried out this survey,
first asked respondents whether they would vote in the
referendum. Next those, who promised to do so, were
shown a voting card with the question "Are you
in favor of accession Poland to EU" and answers:
"yes" and "no".
What has it proved? The turnout
is still unknown. Now the number of those decided to
vote in referendum is 56% of voting population (increase
by 2 points since the last eurobarometer). But still
almost one out of four surveyed hesitates ("rather
yes") - this is the group on which it mainly depends
if the referendum will be valid. The Constitution requires
a turnout of above 50%.
It is assumed that at the ballot
boxes there will be a great number of people with higher
education (83%), workers paid by government (74%), people
aged between 25 and 39 and inhabitants of big cities
(59% in two last groups).
How many Poles are not going
to vote at all? Eurobarometer of Rzeczpospolita reveals
that over 15%. Invariably the lowest interests in voting
are shared by rural population. 19% of them won't go
to cast their votes or are not willing to take part
in the referendum ("rather won't vote"). The
situation is even worse among people with lower education
- almost one out four Poles with primary education (24%)
prefers to stay at home.
Those surveyed who declare to
vote were presented a card with the question and answers
that will be on the referendum. Option "Yes"
was chosen by 81% of those who want to vote. This means
an increase by 8 points in comparison with the beginning
of March, when we carried out the previous Eurobarometer.
13% of respondents are against (decrease by 6 points)
and 6% haven't decided yet how to vote.
We have also decided to check
who is decided to stay at home - those who don't know
how to vote, opponents or maybe supporters of integration?
It occurred that in this group there are more supporters
of joining EU (45%) than opponents (34%). But one out
of five surveyed who won't go to vote has no opinion
on this.
If the results of approving EU
- both within voting and not voting - were counted in
terms of the whole society, it would reveal that 72%
of Poles are in favor of joining EU (increase by 11
points), 16% are in opposition (decrease by 7 points).
Sociologists from PBS point out
that the support of EU slightly increases after the
spectacular events connected with the integration. This
could be observed in January, after the summit in Kopenhagen
(increase by 8 points), and this can be also noticed
now - after signing the accession treaty in Athens and
taking decision how to vote in the referendum (two voting
days and simple question).
However rural population is still
unwilling to integrate. Supporting ratios within whose
who will vote are the lowest - 74% say "yes"
for EU and 18% - "no". The situation is even
worse within farmers - 48% of them are for joining EU
and 31% against. Old people and whose of worse education
are also less willing to integrate. The most euro-enthusiasts
are within supporters of PO (Citizen Platform) (97%
of PO supporters who want to vote approve Poland's accession
to EU). Answer "Yes" will be choosed by the
majority of SLD-UP - Democratic Left Alliance/Union
of Labor - supporters (90%), PiS - Law and Justice -
(77%) and PSL - Polish Peasant Party - (73%). Self-Defence
supporters are divided into two equal groups - 46% of
them are for EU and 45% against. The most euro-skeptics
are within League of Polish Families. This is the only
party where opponents of EU (52%) dominate over the
supporters (40%).
How will you vote in the referendum?
(among likely voters)
"yes": 81%
"no": 13%
doesn't know: 6%
Support for EU within supporters
of political parties:
PO (Citizen Platform): 97%, +10 percentage points since
last eurobarometer
SLD-UP: (Democratic Left Alliance/Union of Labor) 90%,
+8
PiS (Law and Justice): 77%, +6
PSL (Polish Peasant Party): 73%, +13
Self-Defence: 46%, +0
LPR (League of Polish Families): 40%, -4
Followers of integration in
Voivodeships:
Warminsko-mazurskie: 85%
Zachodniopomorskie: 82%
Opolskie: 79%
Lubuskie: 78%
Pomorskie: 76%
Mazowieckie: 76%
Wielkopolskie: 74%
Dolnoslaskie: 73%
Kujawsko-Pomorskie: 73%
Lódzkie: 73%
Swietokrzyskie: 72%
Mlopolskie: 71%
Slaskie: 70%
Lubelskie: 66%
Podlaskie: 63%
Podkarpackie: 59%
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