FRANÇAIS

September 19 , 2003

Happy ending
With the last referendum to take place in the accession countries, Latvians are now sure to join

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST/BRUSSELS - According to the very last polls released this week, before Sunday's referendum, there is now a secured majority of "yes" voters in Latvia. It is the last country to vote on its European Union accession - the previous eight countries that organised a referendum have already confirmed their wish to join Europe.

LATVIA: This week, two final surveys have been released on the Latvian referendum. Latvian Facts conducted a poll between the 12th and the 16th of September - just five days before the referendum - on over 1000 permanent residents in Latvia. According to these results, among those citizens who intend to participate, 63% are in favor of joining the EU, 29% are against and 8% have not yet made up their minds. When considering all citizens, the proportions are similar: 56% support EU accession, 33% oppose it and 11% are undecided.

A phone survey conduced during the last weekend had similar results; InMind found a support on EU accession of 57% among those who intend to participate in the vote and 24% opposing the move. Among the entire population, 53% would vote "yes," 25% "no" and 22% are undecided.

More significantly, between 81% (Latvian Facts) and 91% (InMind) of Latvians could participate in the referendum. If these projections prove to be true, Latvians will display an exceptionally high turnout; comparable only to that of Malta.

The Latvian referendum will close the series of nine EU candidate countries who have submitted to the public approval for their country's EU accession. From the accessing countries' point of view, the referendum this Sunday will remove the last barrier from the planned 2004 enlargement of the European Union.