FRANÇAIS

September 12 , 2003

A majority would vote yes in Estonia
With time running out, in Latvia the uncertain voters have yet to make a choice to secure a positive outcome

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - The final surveys published before the Sunday referendum show a continuation of the trend towards stronger support for membership in Estonia. The pollsters are predicting a relatively high turnout, with just over 70% of voters casting their ballots in favour of accession. The last month has shown falling Latvian opposition to the EU, which has been met with rising uncertainty--a last chance for the public information campaign.

ESTONIA: The last polls published before the referendum to be held on Sunday, the 14th of September, indicate a participation rate above 60% -- with some predictions sitting even higher (71% according to Emor). The proportion of yes votes is expected to be about 70% as well. Although it seems that the outcome of the Estonian referendum will be in favour of EU accession, there has been some confusion about the publication of conflicting public opinion poll results in the press. The source of the confusion has been that while two of the companies published figures for the whole population, the headlines chose the much higher numbers reflecting the proportion of support among likely voters only.

LATVIA: This week marks the last phase of the pre-referendum information campaign in Latvia, which involves publicly well known people calling for voters to say "yes" to the EU on September 20th. This campaign has previously been given credit for falling opposition, which was met with rising uncertainty. Still, we have yet to see the roughly one fifth of unsure voters make a significant shift towards the "yes" or "no" camp. In fact, according to the most recent data provided by SIA "InMind," there has been little change this week in Latvians' predicted voting behavior. The most current poll claims that the proportion of those who plan to vote in favour of accession have fallen three percentage points from 56% to 53%, while voters in opposition have accordingly grown slightly, to 26% (from 24%). Those still unsure remain nearly steady at 21% (from 20%).

There continues to be high expectations for a strong turnout with predictions as high as 84%, although BNS has reported predictions closer to 54%. Although success of the EU supporters seems sure, those who remain uncertain still hold the results of the referendum in their hand.