FRANÇAIS

September 5 , 2003

Estonian referendum seems already decided in people's hearts
Opposition turns to uncertainty in Latvia; people are supposed to back their country's membership in less than three weeks' time

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - After the temporary early-summer set-back, Estonian support for entry into the European Union remains solid, with 70% intending to participate and 69% of projected participants planning to vote "yes". In Latvia opposition falls while uncertainty climbs, and overall, the decisive majority of likely voters are currently in favour of Latvian EU membership.

ESTONIA: During the summer, the traditionally ambivalent Estonian public made a decision about EU membership - a positive one. Over the past two months, after a set-back in June, support among Estonians for European Union membership has sharply increased. The latest Emor study shows that 70% of voters support EU accession, while 30% remain in opposition. Further, the turnout is projected to be well above sixty percent (the actual projection in August was 70%). Since June, the willingness to vote increased by 4 percentage points, and the "for" camp gained as many as 7 percentage points as well. The recent overall increase is found primarily in the younger generation, who are now much more likely to support membership than before. In contrast, the substantial July increase was credited to shifting opinion among older citizens. Researchers attribute the continued and emboldened optimism to persuasive addresses given by key political figures, but not necessarily to the information or advertising campaigns. Analysts do not expect a dramatic negative change during the last two weeks - they sense that the Estonian referendum is already decided in people's hearts.

LATVIA: The latest study by Latvijas Fakti indicates growing uncertainty but falling opposition among Latvian citizens. Opposition has reportedly tumbled nearly 10%, from 35% to 25%. At the same time, those who are unsure of their position have grown equally, from 16% to 26%. Popular support continues to hover around the 50% mark, at 50% for all citizens and 56% among those intending to participate. Meanwhile, predicted participation has significantly increased, from 69% in July to 83% this month. Increasing uncertainty in Latvia has been explained by recent advertising and presidential announcements, which may have caused a segment of the population who once opposed membership to now question their stance. It is unclear as to where these now uncertain voters will decide to stand on the 20th of September.