FRANÇAIS

July 4 , 2003

Opponents and supporters levelling out in Estonia
45% of the voters would vote "no" according to the latest numbers

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - Some 65% of Estonians intend to take part in the binding referendum that will decide on the country's EU accession. The number of EU opponents has increased dramatically since May. Now less than half of the entire population, only 48%, say "yes" for EU membership, as do 55% among likely voters. Those who expect a positive outcome might well be disappointed in September if current trends continue.

ESTONIA: The latest EMOR poll indicates a serious decrease in support for European Union membership among the Estonian population in June. In June, two-thirds of the citizens understood that the results of the 14 September referendum will be binding, and 65% of the eligible voters said they would definitely take part in the referendum. Of those who intend to participate in the vote, 55% support EU accession and 45% are against it. In May, right after the very successful Lithuanian plebiscite, 63% were in favour and 37% opposed it. Looking at the entire population in June, only 48% claimed they would vote in favour of joining the EU, 45% said they would vote against, 7% remained undecided. Support decreased mainly among the lower income population, but remained stable among higher educated individuals, higher income households, and the urban population. And as people realize the importance of their individual vote, the number of "undecideds" has decreased.

The local authorities, however, remain optimistic for the final outcome of the referendum. Growing opposition is due to the increased activity of euro sceptics, the intervention of some media, and individuals' fear of losing control (people are worried about the future of their wages, pensions, and the general cost of living), believes Marko Mihkelson, Chairman of the Parliamentarian Commission of Foreign Affairs. In September, he expects support in favour of EU accession to reach 60-70%, though he warns that public sentiment about EU accession will be remain very vulnerable.