FRANÇAIS

June 20 , 2003

High participation likely in Estonia
Accession on the win in the two most sceptical countries

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - It is estimated that some 78% of Estonians could take part in the referendum to decide on European Union accession. EU support grows. Fifty-nine percent of Latvians approve of EU membership. The Czech voters say "yes".

ESTONIA: The latest survey conducted by ES Turu-uuringute in Estonia indicates that currently 78% of Estonians plan to take part in the referendum. Among those who say they will participate in the vote, 44% would support EU accession, 27% would vote against, and as many as 29% have not made up their mind yet. The number of the undecided has increased significantly over the past twelve months.

Another polling company, EMOR, indicates that 55% of Estonians support EU accession, 39% are against, and 7% are undecided. Among those who will participate in the referendum, 63% would vote "for" accession and 37% would vote "against". The differences between the two surveys may be found in different methodological approaches. The main benefit of EU accession, Estonians suggest, is increased travel opportunities, in addition to educational and work improvements. But Estonians fear inflation and a deterioration of living conditions, as well as environmental problems.

LATVIA: The latest SKDS poll indicates that public support for EU accession now reaches 56%. Twenty-nine percent of the surveyed Latvians would vote against EU membership, and 16% are still undecided. Officials say recent referendum results in the other candidate countries positively influence the voters in favour of accession. Increased media attention, official information campaigns, and increased public debate also contribute to a better understanding of the arguments supporting EU membership, says Ramona Umblija, head of the government task force in charge of the information campaign.

CZECH REPUBLIC: Last weekend, 55% of the population participated in the Czech referendum on EU accession. Seventy-seven percent approved EU membership, 23% were against.