FRANÇAIS

June 13 , 2003

Clear "yes" vote is expected in the Czech referendum
Stable EU support in Latvia

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - In the last week before the referendum, there was a slight increase in intention to vote in the Czech Republic. While over 70% said they would either definitely or probably participate in the referendum, TNS Factum predicts, based on past experience relating actual behaviour and expressed intention, a 57% participation rate. Despite the stronger activization of the "no" camp in the last days, the referendum result is expected to be strongly in favour of accession. Close to eight out of 10 voters will vote for membership in the European Union (76% according to the latest poll published). In Latvia, support for EU accession remains above the 53% record high reached in April. Thirty-two percent of Latvians oppose EU membership. Seventy-two percent of the population could participate in the referendum. In Poland, 77 percent of the voters approved the country's EU membership.

CZECH REPUBLIC: Of the weekly surveys published in the last week, two were by TNS Factum. While the first poll (fielded the last week of May) predicted a 55% participation rate with a 82% "yes" vote, the second poll (with fieldwork finished on 4 June) measured a lower "yes" vote, but with a slightly higher rate of intended participation. According to this last poll, about 57% would participate in the referendum, and 76% of the likely voters would vote for EU accession.. The last weeks of the campaign have mobilized the "no" camp better, and as a result, the composition of likely voters began to include more opposition to EU membership. Support and opposition to accession is about equal among supporters of the political left.

The demographic profile of likely pro-European voters is similar to those in the other accession countries: support is highest among the younger age groups, and increases with education and social position. In the population as a whole -- and not only among the likely participants of the referendum -- supporters comprise 52% of the citizens, while 21% are against accession, and 26% do not know or would not tell how would they vote in the referendum.

A week before the referendum, the percentage of those who still think that they do not have essential information about entering the EU is at 54%, and the percentage of those who state that they did not receive sufficient arguments for supporting the decision now amounts to 48%. The feeling of a deficit of important information and persuasive arguments increased a bit during the last period.

LATVIA: The referendum on EU accession in Latvia will take place on only one day, 20 September, but support has been at record highs in April and May. A survey conducted by "Latvian Facts" in late May indicates that if the referendum were to take place now, almost 57% of Latvian citizens would vote for EU membership, while 29% would vote against. Of the entire population, over 53% support EU accession (53% in April), while 32% oppose it (33% in April). In the past nine month, it is only since April 2003 that the EU approval rate is above the 50% level.

The younger the age group, the more likely it is to support EU accession. Among18-24 year olds, 67% are euro-supporters, as are only 44% of 65-74 year olds. Also, the higher one's household income, the more willing one is to join the EU. The survey shows that the EU support rate among the rural population (59%) is higher than among the urban population (51%). Individuals with more education (67% "yes"), top- and medium-level managers (66%), the self-employed, and those working in agriculture (62%) are the strongest EU supporters. Pensioners (45% "yes") and the unemployed (40%) appear to be the most euro-sceptic.

In May, over 78% of surveyed Latvian citizens declared their intention to participate in the referendum. Of the entire population, the turnout may reach 72%. The results of the Lithuanian referendum are not likely to impact Latvian voter behaviour. A majority (63%) stated that they would not be influenced by the results of the neighbour country vote.