FRANÇAIS

June 6 , 2003

Uncertainty about turnout in Poland, stable support in the Czech Republic
Growing support for EU membership in Estonia

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST -The latest polls on the European Union referendum in Poland show a range of estimates about turnout. According to one polling organization, participation could be just below the required 50% level. In the Czech Republic, support for EU membership has not increased, but interest in European affairs and direct opposition to EU membership is decreasing. Finally, the high approval rate in Lithuania's referendum might have influenced EU support in Estonia positively. Fifty-nine percent of Estonians support EU accession.

POLAND: There are widely different expectations about the possible turnout for Poland's referendum this weekend. At the high end, CBOS and Rzeczpospolita expect, respectively, a participation rate of 71% and 68%. OBOP claims that the turnout will reach 57%, Pentor expects 54%, and experts modeling differences between historic predictions of Ipsos-Demoskop and actual referenda outcomes predict that the actual participation could be just below 50%, thus falling short of the minimum requirement (Demoskop itself measures 75% turn out intention). All surveys have, however, identified a recent increase in willingness to participate. And all published surveys emphasize, based on the direct responses of respondents, that the final turnout may be much lower than had been initially expected. Pollsters, who have made inaccurate predictions about participation before, emphasize that voters' behavior can be influence by a multitude of factors, like weather or television programs, which are beyond their control to foresee. It appears that participation will be lower on Saturday (31%) than on Sunday (45%). Still, every fourth respondent (24%) was not yet sure when he or she would vote. Residents of large cities prefer to vote on Saturday, while rural residents prefer Sunday. The information passed on to the voters on Saturday evening will play a key role in impacting voters' behavior on Sunday.

The different surveys indicate a 74% to 76% level of support for EU accession. Only some 16% to 13% intend to say "no", leaving some 10% to 12% undecided. The main benefits of accession, Poles say, are increased travel opportunities, new job opportunities, and environmental issues. Eighty-seven percent of those surveyed have been reached by the information campaign on EU accession. More than nine out of 10 Poles (94%) have received information about the EU through television. That totals more than three times as many as have received information through the press (27%) and radio (26%). The study conducted by CBOS on the possible impact of Pope John Paul II's declaration May 17 in front of the National Polish Pilgrimage reveals that, for 73% of the respondents, the Pope's declaration has had no influence on their decision about the if and how to vote.

Of the entire population, regardless of respondents' intention to participate in the referendum, 70% of Poles are in favor of joining the EU, 16% are against, and 15% are undecided. Support is still the lowest among the rural population, individuals with lower education, and pensioners. Although young people generally favour the EU, only one out of 10 of the age group 18-24 intends to vote.

THE CZECH REPUBLIC: Czechs continue to be interested in European affairs. More than a third (38%) of Czechs are often interested, 55% are sometimes, and 7% are not interested at all. In its latest poll, TNS-Factum indicates that as many as 76% (sum of those who will "definitely" and "probably" participate in the referendum) say they would vote. But at the same time, based on polling experiences, the real turnout is likely to be much lower.

Among those who will participate in the referendum, eight out of 10 (81%) -- no change from last week -- will vote in favor of EU accession. Those who favor EU accession most, are likely to be male, aged up to 29 or between 30 and 44 years, highly educated, white collar workers, and students. For the whole population, 56% of Czech citizens would vote for accession, 19% won't, and 25% are still undecided.

Forty-three percent of Czechs think that there is not enough information available about the EU accession. Fifty-two percent think the opposite -- they believe that the information is sufficient. Fifty-six percent (2 points higher than the previous result) believe the government does not leave citizens enough room to make their own decisions.

ESTONIA: An Emor survey conducted in late May showed that 15% of respondents said they were influenced by the Lithuanian referendum results. For men (20%) and women (11%), the Lithuanian results are estimated to be an influential factor. Individuals with greater education claimed to be less exposed to the influence. From early to late May, the number of EU supporters has increased from 50% to 59%. Among those who definitely plan to take part in the vote, 63% are for EU accession and 37% are against. Support has steadily increased throughout the last four month.