FRANÇAIS

May 30 , 2003

Poland likely to say “yes”, Czech opinions remain stable

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - Support for European Union accession in Poland shows little change in the week before the referendum. Almost 70% of those who will participate in the vote are in favour. Seventy-four percent of Poles think that most voters will say “yes”. Turnout in the Czech Republic is currently estimated to be 68%, but the real turnout is likely to be much lower.

POLAND: The latest IPSOS poll indicates that 75% of Poles would vote if the referendum were held tomorrow. Sixty-nine percent of those who will participate in the vote support EU membership (a 1 point increase since April), 16% are against (24% in April), and 14% are undecided (8% in April). CBOS found that most Poles have made up their minds. Sixty-eight percent of euro enthusiasts and 57% of euro skeptics are strongly convinced that they will not change their opinions before the referendum. This decisiveness has not changed recently, as 72% of euro supporters and 71% of euro opponents said a few months ago that they had decided how to vote.

Fifty-four percent of respondents think that people from their area will vote for EU accession, and 11% believe people from their area will vote against. Thirty-three percent can’t say how local people would vote. Regarding the overall population, 74% of Poles think that most voters will support EU membership.

THE CZECH REPUBLIC: The Czech public continues to be interested in European affairs. Roughly one out of three (29%) Czechs are often interested, 58% are sometimes, and 13% are not interested at all. This high score is reflected in the current participation rate found by TNS-Factum in the latest poll, in which as many as 68% (sum of those who will “definitely” and “probably” participate in the referendum) say they would vote. This figure, however, is considered to be overly high, and the real turnout is estimated to be about 10 percentage points lower. Those most likely to participate are male, aged 45-59, highly educated, and urban. Those least likely to go voting are female, people 29 or younger (who are nonetheless high supporters of EU accession), people older than 60, individuals with less education, and those from rural zones.

Of those who will participate, eight out of 10 (81%) will vote “for” EU membership. Those who favor EU accession are likely to be male, aged up to 29 or between 30 and 44 years, highly educated, white collar workers, and students. Those least in favor are likely to be aged 45 or older, less educated, farmers, or unemployed. Women, individuals with
lower educational levels, and manual workers are most frequently still undecided. Of the entire population (those who say they will vote and those who say they will not participate in the referendum), 50% of the Czechs would vote for, 20% against, and 30% are still undecided.

Thirty-nine percent of Czechs think that there is not enough information available about the Czech EU accession. Fifty percent think the opposite -- that the information is sufficient. A poll conducted by STEM in early May indicates that half of the citizens still say they have heard no good arguments for voting in favor of EU accession. Their main
fears are higher prices and the future of Czech agriculture. Half of the population feels the state has too much influence on the citizen. Thirty-three percent, however, believe the government leaves citizens enough room to make their own decisions. Among the most important issues that respondents say should be tackled by the Czech Republic, EUaccession only comes in at the 8th position.