FRANÇAIS

May 23 , 2003

Support gears up in Poland, little change in the Czech Republic
92% of Slovakians say "yes" -- with a participation rate on the razor's edge

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - Support of EU accession in Poland remains stable in early May: 71% of the population are in favour of EU membership. Very different opinions emerge about the turnout rate which proved to be the most critical characteristics in the series of the referenda in the applicant countries so far -- but all Polish institutes expect a participation rate higher than 50% on the first weekend of June. According to the government-funded TNS Factum tracking poll with a convincingly high participation (69%), 83% of the Czech voters would say "yes" for accession.

POLAND: The general public opinion in Poland has a very positive attitude towards EU accession. The Polish EU referendum will be held in two weeks' time, on the 7-8 of June. The latest Rzeczpospolita "barometer" conservatively finds 56% willing to vote. Another survey conducted by CBOS foresees a 79% turnout, and for Pentor, as much as 90 percent of the population declare their participation in the upcoming EU referendum. Participants to the vote are most likely to be of higher education, inhabitants of large metropolitan areas, and government employees. People aged 40-59 are most determined to take part in the referendum. Individuals with lower education, the rural population and pensioners are least likely to participate. Very few of the people aged over 59 are likely to vote. Among the people surveyed, 65% feel that their vote in the referendum will count, 26% think it will not and 9% have no opinion.

In the latest "Eurobarometer", 80% of those who will take part in the vote, said "yes" to EU accession, 14% say "no" and 6% are still undecided. This represents a slight decrease by 1 point of the supporters and a 1 point increase for the opponents since April. According to a pre-referendum undertaken in Ilawa, a Polish town of 34.000 inhabitants, 80% of the participants voted in favour of EU accession. Among the total population, considering voters and non-voters, 71% of Poles are in favour of EU membership (a decrease by 1 point since April), 18% are against (increase by 2 points) and 10% are still undecided. Support is lowest among the rural population (58% is for EU accession, 26% is against and 16% is undecided) and old people. The lowest support level (48%) is among households of middle and old age without children.

THE CZECH REPUBLIC: The latest TNS update indicates that as many as seven out of ten people could participate in the upcoming referendum (sum of the responses "definitely yes" and "yes": 69%). The final turnout is likely to be lower however. Among those who have the intention to participate in the vote, 83 percent would vote in favour of Czech accession to the EU. Proponents of the Czech Republic joining the EU predominate in all the surveyed socio-demographic groups. The lowest support was found among people with leftist political orientation.

On the entire population, 53% would vote for EU membership, 19% would vote against and 28% are still undecided. 52% of the Czechs believe there is enough information available regarding EU accession, 40% believe information is insufficient. 35% of the population feel the government provides enough space for their own decision, but still 49% say that the government tends to push people to vote for the accession.

SLOVAKIA: The Slovak population has highly approved EU membership during the referendum held last week (16-17 May). With a turnout rate of just over 52 percent, 92 percent of the population said "yes" and only 6 percent said "no" to membership.