FRANÇAIS

May 9 , 2003

High level of support among those who will participate in referendum in Slovakia
Polish voters are influenced by current affairs

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - In Slovakia, 81 percent among those who have the intention to vote are in favour of joining the European Union. Differences in support are found among the lines of social, geographic and political clusters. Support of EU accession in Poland increased sharply since March, particularly after the signature of the accession treaty during the Summit in Athens. However, the on-going corruption campaign that colours the trust in the local political elite and the very negative opinion about the current government affect the final decision of the voters. The disillusion further endangers the traditionally low turnout rate. Participation rate is a key concern in Latvia as well, where just above half of the voting population support membership.

SLOVAKIA: The latest survey indicates that 61 percent of the population in voting age plans to participate in the referendum that will be held May 16. The DICIO survey reveals that 82 percent of those who intend to participate will actually vote in favor of EU accession. The poll also reveals differential voting intentions among the population depending on party preferences. Potential voters of SDKU, ANO and SMK are much more likely to participate in the referendum. Among the adherents of the KHD party, the number of undecided is the most important among the supporters of the current coalition parties. The population supporting the opposition parties has the lowest intention to participate in the upcoming vote and expresses the lowest support in EU accession (except SMER). Expectations concerning membership is a key driver. People supporting EU membership are the ones with more positive expectations. They expect higher prices but also increased choice and better quality. Whereas people opposing accession expect worsening of their living conditions with increasing prices, decreasing purchasing power and growing competition from aboard.

72% of the population have already heard about the upcoming elections for the European Parliament. However, only 9 percent consider themselves well informed about this issue. The majority of Slovakians believes it is important to have their representatives in the European Parliament and 47 percent would participate in this election, 36 percent claim to be undecided.

POLAND: In Poland, support of EU accession has increased after the Summit of Athens, where Poland has signed the accession treaty. 81% of likely voters say "yes" to EU membership - an 8 point increase since March. The survey conducted by Rzeczpospolita in late April also found that there has been an increase by 2 points of those who are decided to take part in the referendum, climbing to 56% now. Support is highest among individuals with higher education (83%), government employees (74%) and lowest among the rural population (19%). For the entire Polish population (including the non-voters) 72% are in favor of the EU membership, an increase by 11 points. The number of opponents has decreased by 7 points to 16%.

However, there is a risk that the current distrust of the population to its government will affect the voters' decision. It can go both ways - while they trust Brussels more then their own government, it can affect turnout rate if it is perceived as a government campaign (very much like the case in Hungary before). 69 percent of the Poles surveyed claim they are influenced by the bad perception they have of their government. According to CBOS and OBOP, only every tenth surveyed person has positive opinions about the quality of the prime minister's work. Prof. Lena Kolarska-Bobinska, Director of the Institute of Public Affairs admits that negative perceptions about the government may have a negative influence on the turnout of the referendum. The risk is that EU accession may be perceived as a project of the "elite". The most euro-enthusiasts are within the supporters of the PO -Citizen Platform- (97% of them are in favor of EU accession). 90 percent of SLD-UP (Democratic Left Alliance / Union of Labor) supporters are for EU integration, 77% among the PiS -Law and Justice- and 73% among the PSL - Polish Peasant Party. The most euro-skeptic are found within the League of Polish Families, where the majority (52%) are against joining the EU.

LATVIA: The latest survey conducted by SKDS in Latvia reveals an increase in the support of EU membership, reaching with 54% the highest level ever measured in the Baltic country. This constitutes an increase by 4 points to March. 30 percent of the people surveyed would vote against EU accession and 16 are undecided. However, only less then half of the Latvians will definitely participate in the referendum (48%), a further 37% stating it as most likely they will participate. Even among those who support EU membership, only less than 60% are completely sure they will participate in the referendum. 58% of all Latvian residents have a positive attitude towards the EU, and this is significantly higher among the citizens (61%) than among the (mainly Russian-speaking) non-citizens (46%).