FRANÇAIS

May 2 , 2003

Fears of low voter turnout cause Poland to extend referendum from one day to entire weekend
Lithuanian monitoring is ceased as government banned the release of new opinion poll information regarding the EU referendum

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST - In Poland, the recent opinion poll results -- even though there has been some controversy regarding the different results released recently -- confirm high support for accession. However, concerns about participation rates drove the Polish parliament and the Lithuanian government, to decide on a two-day referendum-- in both countries, 50% of voters have to attend to validate the referendum. In the Czech Republic, the level of support for accession is stable as well: more than twice as many are for accession as against, and among likely voters (who are predicted to be about 60% of respondents), the support level is as high as 81%.

LITHUANIA: The European Commission decided to support the Lithuanian government's initiative of banning poll releases up until the May 10-11 referendum about the country's EU membership, therefore we are not including recent results from Lithuania in our weekly summary.

POLAND: Over Easter, there were some interesting developments in Poland in relation to the referendum about EU accession. The most important was the Seim's decision to extend the duration of the referendum to the whole weekend, instead of just Sunday, 8 June. As part of the pro-EU campaign, in a pre-referendum straw poll in Prudnik, 81% voters voted for EU accession, 19% were against. Altogether, 6,364 persons voted, which is 27% of the population of voting age in the township.

As far as real levels of support are concerned, we see a rather heterogeneous picture. CBOS reports slowly decreasing support since the beginning of 2003 -- in January, 74% were in favour of accession, by April, only 68% had the same opinion. But the number of opponents remains low according to this measurement: 22% in April, which is up four percentage points from January. The other major polling company, TNS OBOP, reported similar findings. They found 71% support for EU accession in April, a significant increase from the 66% they measured in March. The proportion of likely voters opposing EU membership is 20%. And finally, a highly debated poll release from Election Surveys Center (OBW), a small independent company, predicted that if the referendum would be held right now, the "no" votes would win by a 51-49% margin. This controversial forecast is based on a 1,000 person national survey and their own methodology. But "the real threat to speak of is low voter turnout," says Jacek Kucharczyk, Program Director at the Institute of Public Affairs. In April, poll data suggests 49% of respondents are certain of participation, 29% said that they might vote, 8% might not vote, and 8% will definitely not vote. It appears that regions with a majority of EU opponents may have higher voter turnout than pro-European regions but, generally, those who favour accession are more determined to vote. It seems, however, that 53% of Poles still declare they are insufficiently informed about Polish EU membership. Residents of rural zones and workers feel the least well-informed.

CZECH REPUBLIC: The TNS Factum weekly tracking shows no change in Czech support levels for EU membership: currently, 52% of people would vote for accession, 20% would vote against it, and 28% of people do not know how they would vote in the referendum. Czech membership in the EU will bring advantages mostly to young people and to people who work in intellectual occupations, according to the respondents of another opinion poll, conducted by STEM. Although respondents expect that EU membership will bring increased quality in education, healthcare, justice, and the work of the public authorities, they are afraid of losing social benefits as a result.