FRANÇAIS

April 11, 2003

Worries about participation in Lithuania, scepticism in Latvia
But a clear pro-EU victory is expected in Hungary on Saturday

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST -- "Do you agree that the Republic of Hungary should become a member of the European Union?" Pre-referendum polls suggest the answer to this question will be a resounding yes. In Hungary, the binding EU membership referendum will take place this weekend. Positive support in favour of EU membership seems assured -- all pre-referendum polls confirm a positive outcome, suggesting 80% of the votes will be for the European Union membership of the country. According to Hungarian law, nation-wide referendums are valid if at least 25% of the total electorate give an identical answer to the question proposed. Opinion poll institutes agree that this threshold will be easily passed. About 40%-50% of all voting-age citizens will opt for membership, even if the actual turnout will probably remain in the 50%-60% range. Release of Hungarian poll data is banned in the eight days before referendums and elections, which explains the lack of fresh information from Hungary.

In Lithuania, the referendum will be held on 10-11 May -- four weeks after Hungary. Worries about insufficient support are over, but those related to lack of participation still exist. There is very little change in Slovakian voting intentions, but there is a rising concern about participation rates in this country as well. In the Czech Republic and Poland, there is a generally favourable trend towards EU accession. Latvia reports the highest level of scepticism toward the benefits of membership so far, but EU supporters are still a majority.

LITHUANIA: The referendum in Lithuania is scheduled for 11-12 May. A poll conducted by Vilmorus indicates that 55% of the respondents said they would certainly participate in the vote, 21% would probably participate, 15% did not know yet, and almost 10% are likely or sure not to participate. According to this study, 66% would vote in favour of EU membership, 13% would not, and 21% are still undecided. Among the likely voters, 79% would vote "yes", only 10% would say "no", and another 10% are still undecided. But V. Gaidys, director of Vilmorus, warns that participation may turn out to be much lower than expected. "People may not participate for many reasons, so I don't want to overrate the answers about participation". A Piniø radijas survey among political experts, journalists, and members of the Seimas confirms that only 9% of the experts expect a participation turnout of 70%-75%. Thirteen percent think less than half of the population will participate.

LATVIA: This Baltic State has always been one of the most sceptical towards EU membership. This trend continues -- only one of the two recent public opinion polls from Riga measures an increase in support. The current support among citizens is 56%, while 38% are against membership, a result of "the biggest growth in the past few years", according to Arnis Kaktinš, director of the survey company SKDS. Some 20% of the Latvian population are not citizens -- most are ethnic Russians who are permanent residents without the right to vote. Among these non-citizens, opponents outnumber supporters of Latvian EU membership. Another comprehensive report released by Latvian Facts on 10 April shows stable support for accession among Latvian citizens, but a slight drop among the total population. According to this poll, conducted in late March, 50% of citizens are for, and 34% are against, EU membership, and 82% of those who have a right to vote think they will participate in the 20 September referendum. The proportion of Euro-sceptics within the total adult population reached a historic high of 37%.

SLOVAKIA: In the past three months, there has almost been no change in voting intentions in the Slovak Republic. The number of individuals who definitely intend to participate in the referendum increased slightly more in March (40%) than in February (37%), and is back up to the January level. The proportion of those supporting EU accession has increased slightly from 80% in January to 82% in March. The ratio of EU membership opponents has fallen from 14% to 11%. Despite general Slovakian support of EU accession, FOCUS warns, "that currently we can estimate the actual referendum participation ranging between 53% and 58%".

CZECH REPUBLIC: The latest poll measured definite participation in the EU membership referendum to be at 40%. Twelve percent of the population will likely or definitely not participate in the vote. Among the respondents who declare they will vote, 70% support accession, 20% oppose it, and 10% are still undecided.

POLAND: In Poland, 74% intend to vote in the referendum. However, this figure includes 62% of "definitely yes" voters and 12% who say only "rather yes" to the participation question. Sixteen percent of respondents will likely or definitely not take part in the vote. Among those who intend to participate, 69% will support European Union accession, but 21%, a relatively high rate, will vote against. Ten percent are still undecided.