FRANÇAIS

April 4, 2003

No doubt in Hungary anymore
Support of EU membership is stable in Lithuania

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST -- In Hungary, there seems to be no doubt anymore about the outcome of the very next referendum to be held: about 8 out of 10 voters would support EU membership, according to the last predictions that have been released before the referendum. Being the next in line, Lithuania registers a recent slight increase in support for EU accession following the latest opinion polls. Among the countries where the vote is still outstanding, Slovakia clearly has the highest rate of EU membership support. With 74% per cent of Greek-Cypriots feeling their country will surely benefit by joining the EU, there is increasing support for cooperation with the EU for local policy making.

HUNGARY: There seems to be no doubt anymore about the outcome of the very next referendum to be held. Gallup's most recent release reported a four percentage point increase in support, which now stands at 64% in the adult population, and at 78% among those who claim they will attend the referendum would vote for membership. According to Gallup, 58% claim certain participation at the vote as of mid-March. A Medián poll conducted early March indicates that 70 percent of the respondents would participate in the vote and, among them, some 80% intend to say "yes". Based on previous polling data, the agency expects a 60 percent turnout, which may lead to an 85% support towards EU membership. Younger voters seem to be more favorable for joining the EU, but they are also less likely to go to vote April 12. Also, there is a political disparity among the Hungarian voters. Sympathizers are more likely to be found among the voters of the two smaller political parties, the center-right MDF (the Hungarian Democrats Forum) and left-liberal member of the ruling coalition, SZDSZ (the Alliance of Liberal Democrats). Nevertheless, there has been a recent 10% increase of those voting for accession among the supporters of the ruling MSZP (the Hungarian Socialist Party). The ratio of supporters of EU integration among those favoring the center-right major opposition FIDESZ (the Hungarian Civic Party) has not significantly changed since the beginning of the year. The main fears from EU membership among the population are the threat of foreigners buying property and agricultural land. The intensification of economic competition, a risk for job security and the growth of real estate prices, energy costs and inflation of consumer goods are felt as the key impact on daily life. Basically, it is felt that the individuals who will loose most are manual workers and agricultural producers. However, the main benefits resented from EU accession are agricultural subsidies. The respondents expect improvements in health services, integrity of public life and increase in wages, which most Hungarians welcome strongly. Finally, the greatest winners among the population will be the higher educated and the younger generation, who will be the main beneficiaries of the future opportunities. (In Hungary the survey companies are banned to publish new poll results in the 7 days preceding elections and referendums, therefore this is the last report before April 12th)

LITHUANIA: The latest opinion polls indicate a slight increase in support for EU membership in Lithuania. With the referendum coming in May, the latest increase of 2 percent since February brings the number of EU membership supporters up to 65.5% in March. Over the same period, the number of opponents has continued to decrease, down to 13.3 per cent. According to V. Gaidys, director of Vilmorus, the figures of membership supporters had been stable for half a year before. However, still a third of the population deplores a lack of information about the EU.

SLOVAKIA: Among the countries where the vote is still outstanding, Slovakia clearly has the highest rate of EU membership support. Almost 8 out of 10 respondents to a recent poll conducted by the Media Research Division of the Slovak Radio, declared their intention to participate in the up-coming referendum. Only 13% said they would not go to vote. Among the voters, 83 percent do support EU membership, whereas 12.8 percent intent to vote "no". However, the voting intentions are not evenly distributed among the population. There is a strong difference between the different age groups: among the younger voters (aged 18 to 24 years), 85.9% would support EU integration, however only 79% would do the same among the senior aged (60 years +). At the same time, support is also highest among the more educated population. From a socio-economic viewpoint, EU accession enjoys highest support with workers in the state sector (88.2%) and entrepreneurs (87.7%), and shows to be lowest with the unemployed (74.1%). Finally, the poll also identifies geographical differences: support is highest in the urban zones of Nitra (88.2%) and lowest in smaller towns in the Trencin region.

CYPRUS: According to an opinion poll carried out in the Southern part of the island, 74% percent of Greek-Cypriots feel that their country will surely benefit by joining the EU. Moreover, the support for joint EU-national decision-making is slightly increasing. Half of the Greek-Cypriots (only 4 out of 10, in 2001) believe this co-operation should take place for matters of residence and employment of foreigners, education and taxation. A stable 6 out of 10 support co-operation in matters of Foreign Policy. The ratio increases in sectors relevant to security and defence, health and social welfare. With regard to the fight against drugs and environmental policies, 8 out of 10 would support a closer co-operation. And, finally, 9 out of 10 would like decisions relative to scientific and technological research to be taken in cooperation with the EU. In hierarchical order, the benefits of EU integration are felt strongest in economic development, security, human rights, the rights of workers and environmental protection. A recent article in Simerini states that still a majority of Cypriots (64%) believes that there is insufficient information on the EU (down from 69% in 2001), although all citizens (100%) have been informed on the EU by national information sources.