FRANÇAIS

March 28, 2003

Hungary comes next: A convincing "yes" so far
The failure of the Cyprus settlement talks did not change Greek Cypriots' view about EU accession

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST -- As referendum dates come closer, support for EU membership is either stable or rising in all countries where surveys were released last week. Hungary is next in the queue, and about three times as many people support membership (60%) as oppose it (18%) -- indicating that the recent decline in support has come to a halt. Support in the Czech Republic has been stable over the past months. Fifty-two percent of the total electorate support EU membership, and less than half, 20%, are against it; 81% would vote "for" the accession if a referendum were to be held on this issue right now. In Poland, 73% would vote for accession, as the latest polls from Warsaw indicate. Finally, some people feared that the failure of the Annan Plan for the reunification of the divided Turkish and Greek communities in Cyprus would negatively affect the public's willingness to join the European Union. According to a recent poll, the vast majority of the Greek Cypriot community does not share these worries, thinking that the failed settlement will not affect the country's accession to the European Union, which is largely perceived as a given.

HUNGARY: According to TÁRKI, one of Hungary's most respected survey organisations, 60% of the voting-age population support, and one-fifth (18%) oppose, the EU accession of Hungary. Almost three-quarters (73%) of those who claim they will surely attend would vote "for" the accession, 15% are against, and 12% have no clear opinion yet. More than four in five (81%) of those who have a clear opinion and promise to vote support membership. TÁRKI evaluates that, "In the three weeks remaining until the referendum, many things can occur that might influence the outcome of the referendum. Taking into account these variable circumstances, we expect that the binding referendum on 12 April will be valid, and the turnout will be somewhere between 60-70%. According to our expectations, 75-85% of those who will attend will vote "yes" for EU membership, so the political support behind the accession will be high".

THE CZECH REPUBLIC: According to a TNS Factum opinion poll, conducted between 7 and 12 March 2003, as many as seven out of 10 Czechs would participate in the referendum on EU accession -- resulting in a clear "yes" vote. According to current estimates, 81% of voters would vote in favour of accession, but in the total electorate, support barely exceeds half (52%) of the voters. Proponents of the Czech Republic's EU membership predominate in all the surveyed socio-demographic groups, but support is lowest among people who profess to be left wing. The symptomatic lack of information that characterizes almost all accessing nations is apparent in the Czech Republic as well -- according to current poll findings, half (51%) thought that they did not have crucial or important information. Furthermore, 48% also declared they received too few arguments supporting their decision to vote in favour of Czech accession.

POLAND: Besides the recent information that Polish support among likely voters is overwhelming (73% according to Ipsos-Demoskop), an interesting piece appeared in Rzeczpospolita about the degree to which Poles are willing to accede their national sovereignty to the EU. CBOS asked Poles about what kind of EU they want. Sixty-five percent think that member states -- including Poland -- should maintain as much independence as possible. Only 16% say that the EU should be a federation, similar to the United States. Sixty-one percent of citizens would like member states to retain as much freedom to define their foreign policy as possible. Only 36% think that a common stance toward foreign issues should be worked out together. Over half (52%) of respondents accept establishing a kind of "common government" for the member states; 23% are against this idea. Forty-four percent would accept a common European military command (32% refuse this idea). Another study conducted by the Institute of Public Affairs confirms high interest about EU integration issues among Poland's rural youth, but identified an alarming information deficit among them: 67% describe their knowledge as poor, and 7% admit they have no knowledge at all. However, rural youth opinions on EU membership appear to be heavily influenced by political preferences. Zbigniew Drag from the Institute of Sociology of Jagiellonski University in Krakow said, "Those who are against the integration are young rural people connected with agriculture, not the total rural youth". The fears of these people relate to the future of the food market, property rights, and general impoverishment of the rural areas.

CYPRUS: The failed attempt at settling the issues facing the divided island might mean that there will be no referendum about the country's EU accession at all. A recent poll conducted on the southern part of the island indicates that the Greek community does not fear that the collapse of the settlement will negatively affect their hopes for EU accession. According to an article in the important Greek-language daily, Simerini, "In the public's eye, the full incorporation of Cyprus in the European Union is a given".