FRANÇAIS

March 21, 2003

The Slovene "yes" for EU membership is now secure on Sunday's referendum
Polls indicate that Slovenes will probably support their country's membership to NATO as well

by Robert Manchin

BUDAPEST -- Slovenia's political elite has decided to combine two referendums, one regarding membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and one on the European Union (EU). Potential EU membership has a high approval rating, but NATO membership is more politically controversial and at best has only marginal support. The vote will take place this Sunday, March 23. A high attendance at both referendums (held on the same day, at the same polling stations, with one polling committee) is likely, according to the latest poll results.

The stakes are high: both referendums, the one for joining NATO and the one for joining the EU, will be binding on the parliament and cannot be repeated in the process of integration (with the ratification of different acts). The parliament called for a consultation referendum; but a consultation referendum is not binding by law. With the Constitutional act proclaimed on Friday, March 7, the so-called European articles were inserted into the Constitution, enabling the country's integration in international organizations and transferring a part of sovereignty rights. According to the application part of this Constitutional act, both referendums became binding for the parliament.

All pre-referendum polls confirm that an overwhelming majority of the Slovenian electorate will take a positive stance on their European Union membership during the referendum to be held on Sunday. The latest figures indicate that about eight in 10 Slovenes support EU membership, and less then six out of 10 support NATO membership.

According to the European Commission's Candidate Countries Eurobarometer, the Slovenian public -- while it has always been in the more supportive camp of the accessing countries -- was more sceptical about the possible benefits of EU membership during 2001 and 2002. At that time, only a slim majority of people were in favour of EU membership, reaching a historic low of 56% in the spring of 2002. These negative tendencies turned around in the second half of 2002 -- since last autumn, -- there was a constant and significant increase in Slovenes' support of the EU membership of their country. EU membership is favoured by all major Slovenian political forces, as well. On Sunday, it is predicted that such support will result in a referendum victory for those who have campaigned for the accession of Slovenia to the European Union.

The latest polls - done by various agencies -- indicate that, just before the referendum, there are very few Slovenes still opposing EU membership -- only 6%, according to a March 17 poll. Traditionally one of the best informed of the candidate countries, the Slovenian public is now sufficiently convinced that the advantages of EU membership outweigh the possible negative effects. It is predicted that the referendum's "yes" votes may reach or even exceed 80%. Latest polls suggest that turnout will probably exceed 70% of eligible voters.

According to Ljubljana University's Dr. Niko Toš : "The referendum for EU is won, the referendum for NATO is also more or less decided." Support for NATO membership has now reached the level of support EU membership had in 2001-2002, and the number of opponents is down significantly, to 26% of the electorate. It remains to be seen how the U.S.-led attack on Iraq will influence Slovenian decisions about joining the military alliance.

A March 12-13 survey, conducted by Ninamedia, indicated that the proportion of those who would vote against NATO membership would rise considerably (from 19% to 27%, according to their data) should the United States launch an attack against Iraq before Sunday. In light of recent developments the outcome is difficult to predict, but the majority of those who will attend the referendum will most probably back the country's membership in NATO. Last month, there were serious concerns about Slovenes' support of the country's NATO membership -- February polls measured only 37% of the citizens being "for," and 36% "against" .

Recent poll publications in relation with the coming referendum:

DeloStik
carried out a series of phone surveys to track latest developmets on the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 17th March with respectively 965, 989, 997, 996 and 988 individuals interviewed. The question asked was if people would agree on Slovenia becoming a member of the EU. The results are published in the daily Delo.

• For the first three days, support for the EU has fallen from 82,6% to 77,3%.But it then turned to 79,6 and ends at 85,2 percent of support.
• Despite a peak of 12,7 percent on the 12th March, the number of no-voters turned from an initial 8,0 down to 6,2 percent. But the number of undecided individuals peaked the 13th March with 12,1%, but decreased from an initial 9,5% to 8,6 percent.
• The poll identifies an initial oscillation in support of joining NATO, (50,9%, 48,1% and 50,1% for the first three days) but it then shows a strong progression up to 58,6 percent. At the same time, the number of opponents went from an initial 31,5% up to 34,1% on the 11th, before falling down to 24,8 percent on March 17th.
• Finally, there is a decline in individuals who have decided they would go to the referendum (66%, 61,7%, 61,7%). The percent of those who will not go for the referendum went from 13% to 14,9%. The number of undecided fell from almost seven percent to 5,3 percent.

Gral Iteo
Carried out a phone survey from 18th till 22nd February and a second wave from 5th to 9th March with respectively 679 and 724 people.

• Asked if people vote for joining EU if a referendum was held next Sunday, there is a significant increase in support going from 73 percent in February to 82% in March.
• On the other hand, the number of no-voters decreased from 15% to 10% and 8% replying they did not know.
• In March, 51% are for joining NATO, up from 44% in the February poll. In the same period, the number opposing joining decreases from 39% to 35%.
• When asked if people would agree with the statement that Slovenia's joining EU is conditioned with Slovenia's joining Nato, 53% answered that it is absolutely not conditioned (50% in February), 20 percent is was probably not conditioned (18%), 11 percent think it is conditioned and 7% believe it is absolutely conditioned with joining NATO.

Public Opinion and Mass Communication Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana, Politbarometer
The telephone survey was carried out on 911 individuals on 10th until 12th of March and asked if people vote for or against joining EU if a referendum was held next Sunday. Published in Vecer.

• 71 percent said they would vote for joining the EU, 10 percent would vote against and 19% were undecided.
• Support for joining NATO has increased since January (44%) to 48% (March), but has not reached the December level (50%). No-voters have decreased since January (39%) to 28% (March), which is an even lower level than in December (30%).
• This poll indicates that 88 percent do intend to take part in the referendum, where 6% don't intend to and the 6 remaining don't know.

RM Plus
This survey has been carried out the 12th and 13th March and covered 700 respondents.Published in Vecer.

• To the question of are you for or against Slovenia's membership in EU, 82 percent vote for, 7% against and 11% don't know.
• Regarding the question about joining NATO, 54% voted for, 28 percent against and 18% did not know.

Ninamedia
The survey was carried out on March 12th and 13th on a sample of 1.000 respondents and appeared in the daily Dnevnik.

• It establishes that some 80,4 percent of respondents have the intention to participate in the referendum. 7,6% intent not to vote and 12,0 percent don't know yet.
• Out of these who intend to take part in the referendum, 82,3% would vote for joining the EU, only 4,0 would vote against but 13,7 percent did not yet know how they would decide.
• Again, out of those who intent to vote, some 59,6 percent will vote for joining NATO, 18,9% will vote against and 21,5% don't know.
• Among those who have not yet decided about how they will vote, 40,2 percent that it is more possible that they vote in favour, 20,0 against and another 39,8 still would not know.
• Finally, 73,0 percent of respondents believe they have enough information for making a decision about joining NATO. And 23,5% feel they don't have enough information.